KNOWLEDGE / MACROS AND EVENTS

Macros and Events

CPI, Fed, dollar, bonds, ETFs, unlocks and market reaction to new information.

06articles

Macros and Events4 min read

CPI inflation a Bitcoin — what the market really appreciates

The CPI publication affects expectations about interest rates and central bank policies, so it can trigger a rapid change in risk valuation. However, the inflation number itself is less important than the difference in consensus. The market responds to surprise and how the publication changes the expected path of monetary policy. The same reading could cause a different reaction in two different...

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Macros and Events4 min read

Fed decisions and interest rates: How they affect crypto

Fed affects money price, liquidity and expectations of risk assets. To code, not only the interest rate decision itself, but the message, projections and conference that change expectations for the future. The market often evaluates the decision before it is announced. Therefore, no change of feet can cause a lot of traffic if the language of the message differs from expectations. BTC It's...

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Macros and Events4 min read

DXY Dollar, bonds and Bitcoin — how to read dependency

DXY and bond yields are often used as a context for risky assets, but correlations are not permanent. In different regimes Bitcoin may react more strongly to liquidity, crypto events or specific flows than the dollar itself. Stronger dollar is the opposite wind for risk, and rising real profitability increases the attractiveness of assets without risk. However, this does not mean...

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Macros and Events4 min read

ETF Bitcoin and Ethereum: Flows more important than headlines

ETFs create a channel of capital flow between the traditional financial system and the exposure to crypto. For the market, the actual balance of inflows and outflows and the price response to these flows can be more important than the media headline. A large inflow does not have to immediately raise prices if the supply of the spot absorbs demand. In turn, moderate flows can have a greater effect during a period of thin liquidity....

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Macros and Events4 min read

Unlocks tokens — When Supply Can Really Threaten the Price

Unlock increases the number of tokens that can enter the market, but not every unblocked unit goes straight to the market. The importance of the event depends on size relative to capitalization and liquidity, the structure of beneficiaries and prior positioning. A large percentage of the supply unlocked for early investors or the team can increase the risk of sales pressure. On the other hand...

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USA labour market data and crypto market analysis

Macros and Events4 min read

NFP and the US labour market: why crypto responds to employment

Data from the US labour market influence expectations about the economy and Fed policy, so NFP publications, unemployment rate and wage dynamics can quickly change the valuation of the dollar, bonds, indices and Bitcoina. The market does not respond to the very number of new jobs, but to the difference in expectations and consequences for future interest rates. Strong data can be...

First, define the context and horizon of the analysis.
Confirm your applications with independent data layers.
Take into account the quality of feed, spread and real cost of execution.