KNOWLEDGE / MACROS AND EVENTS

Macros and Events

CPI, Fed, dollar, bonds, ETFs, unlocks and market reaction to new information.

06articles

Macro and events4 min read

CPI and Bitcoin: separating the release from the market reaction

Headline CPI, CPI excluding food and energy, monthly changes and annual changes answer different questions. Keep the official series definition, seasonal-adjustment convention and reporting period alongside each number. A consensus estimate is an external…

Identify the CPI series, reporting period and official publication time.
Name the separate source of expectations before describing a surprise.
Check the price reaction and executable costs instead of trading a headline.

Macros and Events4 min read

Federal Reserve decisions: policy, expectations and crypto context

The current policy-rate decision, accompanying statement and later communication can contain different information. A rate change that was widely expected may matter less than a change in the indicated policy path. Economic projections express participants'…

First, define the context and horizon of the analysis.
Confirm your applications with independent data layers.
Take into account the quality of feed, spread and real cost of execution.

Macros and Events4 min read

The dollar, bond yields and Bitcoin: reading relationships carefully

A dollar index, a bond yield and a crypto price use different units. Compare changes over aligned windows rather than plotting raw levels and declaring a relationship from their shapes. Bond prices and yields are distinct variables, so a rise in yields must…

First, define the context and horizon of the analysis.
Confirm your applications with independent data layers.
Take into account the quality of feed, spread and real cost of execution.

Macros and Events4 min read

Bitcoin and Ethereum funds: flows, assets and reporting lags

A fund's assets can grow because its holdings rise in price, because shares are created, or through a combination of both. A change in assets under management is therefore not the same as net subscriptions. Read the issuer's definitions for holdings, shares…

First, define the context and horizon of the analysis.
Confirm your applications with independent data layers.
Take into account the quality of feed, spread and real cost of execution.

Macros and Events4 min read

Token unlocks: circulating supply, recipients and market absorption

A vesting event can make tokens transferable without requiring recipients to sell them immediately. Inspect the project's own schedule, contract behaviour and definition of circulating supply. Separate a cliff release from continuing linear vesting, and note…

First, define the context and horizon of the analysis.
Confirm your applications with independent data layers.
Take into account the quality of feed, spread and real cost of execution.

Macros and Events4 min read

US employment releases and crypto: payrolls, unemployment and revisions

The US Employment Situation combines information from separate establishment and household surveys. Payroll employment and the unemployment rate therefore do not measure the same population in the same way. Wage growth, participation and revisions can change…

First, define the context and horizon of the analysis.
Confirm your applications with independent data layers.
Take into account the quality of feed, spread and real cost of execution.